For lenders & partners

Trust loop vs black-box AI

What PetroReal v1 does today — and what the 2022 deck promised but we refuse to fake.

The loop

  1. Pull live RRC production from Supabase (437k+ rows).
  2. Run EVAL: Arps decline + 2-year holdout backtest.
  3. Gate: <4 yr history, r² < 0.5, or MAPE > 50% → REFUSED with sha256 receipt.
  4. Passing leases get P10/P50/P90 — bands derived from holdout error, not marketing.
  5. ECON runs only on certifiable streams; missing price deck / LOE → refused.
  6. Package rollup sums NPV across leases; partial packages are labeled PARTIAL.

Shipped today (v1)

  • One-click lease search, basin rollups, well workspace
  • P10/P50/P90 production + EUR with holdout MAPE on screen
  • P10/P50/P90 NPV DCF + oil/gas/LOE what-if sliders
  • Multi-lease package economics
  • Cryptographic receipts on every outcome

Deck promises we do not claim yet

  • "Pure AI" quantile regression — v1 uses governed Arps + holdout bands
  • Undrilled location forecasting — refused without spatial validation
  • Attribute fusion (logs, completions, seismic) — production-only corpus
  • 1% Delaware benchmark — not reproduced; we show MAPE, not hype
  • PetroReal-VIEW / IoT — refused until sensor partnership exists

Demo path for Nester

Dashboard → search PEGASUS → open well → drag econ sliders → Package rollup with DENVER + PEGASUS + RUCKMAN → show refusal on a short-history lease.

Decision-support only. Not reserves certification. Every refusal is a correct output when evidence does not support the claim.